Rainfall to persist across country, intensity rising from Thursday
Rainfall will persist across the country this week, with intensity increasing from Thursday as the long rains gradually build toward their April peak.
According to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), several regions will receive sustained rainfall from Tuesday, March 17, with some areas likely to experience isolated heavy downpours that could trigger flooding and disrupt transport and daily activities.
“The amount of rainfall that will be experienced on Thursday will be more than that experienced on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.” David Koros, the Assistant Director Forecasting Services at KMD told Nation.
In its weekly forecast on March 16, 2026, the department said rain will affect the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, the South-eastern Lowlands and the Coast.
“There will be increased intensity from Thursday. Isolated heavy rainfall events are also likely over parts of these areas,” the department said.
The forecast presents a crucial window for farmers planting crops during the long rains, which form the backbone of Kenya’s food production cycle.
Areas likely to receive regular rainfall include counties in western Kenya and the Rift Valley such as Nandi, Kakamega, Bungoma, Trans-Nzoia, Uasin-Gishu, Kericho and Kisumu.
“Morning rains are likely in a few places, especially from Thursday, while afternoon and night showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread to several areas,” the department said.
In the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nyeri, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru and Nairobi counties, rainfall is also expected, initially in isolated places before intensifying.
“Afternoon and night showers and thunderstorms are expected over a few areas, occasionally spreading to several places,” the agency warned.
Meanwhile, the Coast region, including Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, and Kwale, will experience intermittent rain throughout the day and night.
Parts of North-eastern and North-western Kenya, including Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Turkana, and Samburu, will remain mostly sunny and dry, though occasional showers are possible.
Weather experts also warned that high temperatures will persist in several regions.
“Daytime average temperatures above 30°C are expected in several parts of the country, including the Coast, North-eastern, and North-western regions,” the department said.
Night temperatures in some highland areas could drop below 10°C, particularly around the Central Rift Valley and near Mt Kilimanjaro.
These variations in rainfall and temperature will influence what crops farmers should plant and where.
According to Koros, rainfall is expected to be more widespread than usual across the affected areas, with coverage exceeding normal patterns as the country approaches the peak of the March–April–May long rains season, a period typically marked by intensified and more consistent precipitation.
“We expect rainfall in the affected areas to be above the normal coverage,” Koros said, “because we are now approaching the peak of the March–April–May long rains season,” Koros added.
While much of the country braces for wet conditions, parts of North-eastern and North-western Kenya are projected to remain largely dry and sunny. However, occasional rainfall may still occur in these areas.
Agricultural experts advise farmers in high-potential areas, such as the Rift Valley, to focus on high-yield maize varieties that benefit from longer growing seasons.
One recommended variety is H6213, produced by the Kenya Seed Company. It matures in about six months and is known for large harvests, making it suitable for highland counties like Uasin-Gishu, Trans-Nzoia and Nandi.
Another recommended variety is Pioneer 30G19, which matures slightly faster and has strong resistance to leaf blight.
Machakos-based agronomist Martin Mutua advised farmers in semi-arid counties such as Kitui, Makueni and parts of Embu to plant fast-maturing crops that can survive shorter rainfall seasons.
Recommended varieties include SC Duma 43, which matures in about three months and tolerates heat stress and DK 8031, known for its “stay-green” characteristic that helps the plant remain healthy even when rainfall is scarce.
Experts also encourage farmers to plant legumes alongside maize to improve soil fertility and provide additional income.
“Kenya’s farming regions differ significantly in their production strategies,” Mr. Mutua said.
In Trans-Nzoia County which is often referred to as the country’s maize basket, farmers typically plant large tracts of maize due to favorable soil and rainfall. Kitui County, by contrast, favors short-season crops such as green grams and sorghum because rainfall is less predictable.
“Farmers there should plant quick-maturing crops that can be harvested before moisture disappears,” he added.
Agricultural specialists say that farmers should take advantage of the rains to plant crops quickly, as delayed planting often exposes crops to drought later in the season. Meteorologists have urged farmers and the public to continue monitoring regular weather updates.
Despite the loss of lives and destruction of property witnessed in recent heavy rainfall incidents, authorities say many residents continue to ignore safety advisories, exposing themselves to avoidable risks.
Officials have expressed concern over the tendency of some people to disregard warnings, particularly in flood-prone areas, even as the country enters one of its most critical rainfall periods.
“We use the feedback shared with us to understand the weather outlook in different parts of the country,” Koros said, “especially in areas we do not have our stations installed. For instance, reports from the media also help inform our assessments.”
Koros added that the department shares the forecast and advisories with key government institutions to enhance preparedness.
Floods have so far claimed 66 lives according to the National Police Service (NPS), as heavy rains continue to batter different regions.
In a press statement issued on March 15, 2026, the NPS reported that the victims include 50 men, eight women and eight children. Nairobi recorded the highest number of deaths, with 33 fatalities, followed by the Eastern region with 18, the Rift Valley eight, Nyanza four, the Coast two, and Central region one.
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