Is it for nothing? Understanding the Azimio political rallies
The Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition’s rejection of the August 2022 presidential election results was not unexpected. However, the recent report by an anonymous IEBC whistleblower has shifted perceptions of the election results, at least among the Azimio faithful, as demonstrated by recent rallies.
Six months on, the discourse surrounding the polls continues to dominate with the Azimio camp calling for President William Ruto’s resignation.
Political experts believe that the eerie similarities between current political rallies and those following the 2017 general elections serve not only to pacify Raila Odinga’s political base but also to distract from the Kenya Kwanza government.
On January 18, Jubilee Party Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni claimed that Raila won the 2022 election with 8,170,353 (57.3%) votes against Dr. Ruto’s 5,915,973 (41.66%) votes.
He based this on a whistle-blower report that claimed widespread fraud and manipulation in the election.
The anonymous whistle-blower, claiming to be an IEBC employee, alleged that results from 144 constituencies were altered by some IEBC officials to give Ruto an advantage.
Since then, Azimio has seized upon the report, which is under investigation by the Directorate of Criminal Investigations, using it to further claims of Kenya Kwanza’s illegitimacy.
During a rally at Kamukunji grounds in Nairobi, Raila repeated the allegations of election rigging and pledged resistance against President Ruto and the Kenya Kwanza government.
“Accept that you were defeated in the election, leave State House for Baba to get in. We are speaking the truth, we do not want war, and we do not want threats. We have our rights as Kenyans, and they cannot be snatched by a hawk, Kenyans deserve a leader that they elected,” he said.
Lawyer and political analyst Danstan Omari believes that the only way for Azimio to force Ruto from office is by exerting sufficient pressure to force his resignation.
However, Omari notes that this rhetoric is merely a “political body blow similar to Raila’s mock swearing-in. It might not be legally relied upon, but it will keep Ruto on the defensive.”
These sentiments are echoed by Dr. Michael Ndonye, a lecturer at Kabarak University’s Department of Mass Communication and a political commentator, who views the situation as a “sensation declaration that works on masses.”
The political commentators concur that the rallies serve as good political material and sustain faith in Raila’s base.
Ndonye attributes the rallies to Ruto’s frequent Sunday visits to various counties and sentiments on taxation.
He also claims that Ruto’s visits to Raila’s stronghold may have laid the groundwork for a coup to end the Orange Democratic Party.
“The rallies are for Azimio to remain relevant. I don’t think in 2027 ODM will be there,” he says.
These remarks followed Ruto’s meeting with a group of Azimio allies, to which Professor Makau Mutua, spokesperson for Raila Odinga’s 2022 presidential campaign team, responded on Twitter: “Ruto’s ungoverned greed to cannibalize and swallow all political space bespeaks of a dangerous authoritarian.”
Political experts agree that election denialism, no matter the goal, risks undermining confidence in independent bodies like the IEBC. “People may not accept that he lost the election, but it erodes confidence in independent institutions like the IEBC,” said Ndonye.
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