Independent expert, Charles Hornsby, dismisses recent whislteblower allegations as fake

An independent expert on Kenya’s politics, electoral system and history, Charles Hornsby, has come out to to say that the recent allegations of election fraud in the 2022 presidential general election are false.

This follows the recent publication of a set of alternative results by an unnamed source who claimed to be an IEBC whistle-blower. These results were seized upon by the opposition and presented as proof of fraud.

Hornsby, who looked at the alleged polling station-by-polling station results produced by NASA after the polls in 2017 and concluded that they were a clumsy fake, decided to give these new allegations a try.

“The main differences between these alleged whistle-blower results (‘AWBRs’ henceforth) and the 2017 fakes are that they come from an anonymous source, not the Odinga camp (though they may of course be the same thing), they are only at the constituency level (no polling station results, so nothing can be verified or disproved explicitly by reference to posted 34A polling station forms), and more than half of them match well with the official results,” Hornsby stated in his blog post.

Hornsby continued by saying that his analysis showed the purported results to be a combination of real results, clumsy transpositions that are obviously false, and transpositions and movements of votes between candidates that could be real.

He provided examples of constituencies where the results have been switched in a way that makes no sense, such as Buuri and Maara in the Meru counties, where UDA won both seats in the MP contests and Ruto won by huge margins in all the other Meru seats, but in these two the results have been switched.

“In Nyeri, the home of deputy president Gachagua, where UDA won every seat in Parliament by 4-1 margins, we again see three seats (Tetu, Kieni, Mukurweini) with the Raila-Ruto results switched, plus Mathira and Othaya where 7,000-10,000 votes have been moved (leaving the results in Ruto’s favour but by smaller margins). The other seats were left as the IEBC reported, leaving a bizarre patchwork which makes little sense,” Hornsby said.

Hornsby concludes that the alleged whistle-blower results are a simple fake, stating “One final example, I think clinches that these results are a simple fake: the results in Uasin Gishu, Ruto’s home. Few would argue that Raila would win in Ruto’s home, yet the AWBRs claim that Raila won by a margin of 6,000. It is impossible to believe that this is a real result.”

Since 1986, Hornsby has researched on Kenya and occasionally published on it. He has co-authored two books on Kenya, the first of which was released in 1998 with David Throup and the second of which was an authoritative history of Kenya that was released in 2011.



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