Critic turned insider: Mbadi to handle Ruto’s skunk in latest political twist
Orange Democratic Movement Party chairman John Mbadi, known for his criticism of the government’s aggressive tax policies, is now on the verge of becoming the Cabinet Secretary for the National Treasury. He has been a vocal critic of President William Ruto and the Kenya Kwanza administration’s tax policies.
Mbadi is remembered for his remark that William Ruto’s first cabinet was “60% incompetent,” and approving the nominees would be like “giving Ruto his skunk.” Now, with the economy in a difficult situation, the skunk that Ruto was given has left a stink. Ironically, it appears that Ruto has, in turn, given Mbadi his skunk.
Beyond the celebrations and ceremonial aspects, significant work lies ahead for Mbadi if he is confirmed. One of his primary challenges will be addressing the country’s debt.
According to the National Treasury’s April 2024 Monthly Bulletin, the total nominal public and publicly guaranteed debt stock at the end of April 2024 was Sh10.52 trillion, which is 65.2 percent of the Gross Domestic Product. Domestic debt stock stood at Sh5.32 trillion, accounting for 50.6 percent of the total debt and 33 percent of GDP. External debt stock was equivalent to $39.01 billion, making up 49.4 percent of the total debt.
Prime Cabinet Secretary and acting Treasury CS Musalia Mudavadi highlighted the debt issue, stating, “What is biting us is the commercial debt, the expensive debt is what is hitting us very hard. It’s not the concessionary funds. And the reality is we can’t run away from it.”
In addition to the debt challenge, Mbadi will need to spearhead efforts to finance the Budget amidst tough economic conditions and the impact of the shelved Finance Bill, 2024. The Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) missed its revenue target by Sh276 billion, collecting Sh2.22 trillion in the year ended June. Debt payments accounted for 73.8 percent of tax collections during this period.
In October last year, Mbadi criticised the Ruto administration for overtaxing Kenyans, arguing that it stifled economic growth.
“We agree that the debt level is unmanageable, but the mistake the government is making is to imagine it will collect more from Kenyans by increasing taxes. The moment you start attacking people’s salaries, they stop spending. To address this and stabilise the economy, the government should stimulate the economy, and you cannot do this when you are shrinking domestic demand,” he said.
Mbadi, an accountant and legislator, has consistently criticised the Kenya Kwanza administration’s economic management and governance. In October 2023, when the Kenya Shilling was trading in the 150 range against the US dollar, Mbadi proposed renegotiating international loans to alleviate pressure on the dollar.
“If you don’t do it, please do not pretend that we can manage this economy at the rate we are going,” he said.
As he potentially joins the Cabinet to head the Finance docket, Mbadi faces criticism for possibly embodying the very issues he previously denounced. He will need to prove his capabilities and inspire confidence in his leadership as he works towards the country’s economic recovery.
The former Assistant Minister in the Office of the Prime Minister during the Mwai Kibaki-Raila Odinga government has a challenging political journey ahead. His past statements are being used both against him and as benchmarks for his performance. With the Treasury at the heart of economic transformation, Mbadi will have to address the significant economic issues that he once criticized, as he now faces the very challenges he warned against.
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