Scenarios for Kenya in 2040 | Business Redefined

What are the prospects for Kenya's economy in the medium-term? The Institute of Economic Affairs, IEA Kenya, posits that there are four possible scenarios that could materialize. The first is the 'Madaraka Realized' scenario where state capacity improves and there is greater economic freedom with a private sector led economic growth model; the second is the 'Jua Kali Kingdom' where there are favorable policy reforms but the state is ineffective and institutions are weak preventing the implementation of the favorable reforms; the third is 'Managed Stagnation' where state capacity improves but policy direction is not supportive of a well developed private sector leading to failure in Industrialization of the economy & finally the 'Eastern Sunset' scenario where the state is ineffective and policy environment is not conducive to development of a vibrant private sector. For more on this, we speak to the IEA Kenya CEO, Kwame Owino.
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Episodes
Competition & Job Creation | Business Redefined In 2024, out of the total 782,300 new jobs reported to have been created in Kenya, 90.0% were in the informal segment of the economy, up from 84.0% in 2014. Business Redefined kicks off 2026 with a look at the critical question of jobs & the role of pro-competitive reforms in catalysing employment creation in the country. Drawing from a joint study between the World Bank & the Competition Authority (CAK, Kenya), we explore possible interventions in key sectors (electricity, transport, telco & fertilizer distribution) & what impact they could have on job creation.   January 6, 2026
KRA's Validation of Income & Expenses | Business Redefined Effective Jan 1st 2026, Kenya Revenue Authority will embark income & expenses validation. What does this mean & are you ready for it?
  1. Finance Act 23's amendment introducing Sec16(1,c) to the Income Tax Act takes full effect in tax administration
  2. The only expenses that will deemed eligible for deductible purposes are those that are backed by eTIMS invoices
  3. One's income declaration must align with accompanying eTIMS invoices raised by persons procuring their services/products
Already, there are instances where the iTax portal is now dispensing pre-populated Corporate Income Tax returns files for 2025 in line with this. We take a deep dive into this with PwC Kenya's Edna Gitachu & what it means for tax compliance, especially by the vast small businesses segment. Also, if you are in the transfer pricing environment, Advance Pricing Agreements take effect on Jan 1st, 2026 & we have seen the Draft Regulations. It's also part of the discussion. December 30, 2025
Sustainability in Financial Services | Business Redefined A look at the green taxonomy & its impact of mainstreaming sustainable lending in Kenya's formal financial services sector with KCB Bank Kenya's Director for Strategy & Innovation, Mark Mwongela. Also in the discussion, KCB Group's heightened appetite for fintechs & how the acquisition of Riverbank & Pesapal (minority stake) fits within the broader strategy. December 30, 2025
Africa Markets Pulse | Business Redefined We take a continental look at capital market activity that has shaped Africa in 2025. On the agenda:
  • Kenya debut asset backed security being listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange
  • Egypt's venture with Africa's first regulated Voluntary Carbon Market
  • Ethiopia pushing forward the liberalization agenda by passing a new law allowing foreign banks to access its banking sector (capped at 40.0% ownership)
  • Global macros & FX implications for select African markets
We have a conversation with the Global Markets Director at Absa Kenya, Stella Mambo, for a deep dive into this & a lot more. December 23, 2025
Reset in Kenya's Hospitality | Business Redefined Kenya's inbound tourism earnings closed 2024 at Kes 452.20 billion, up 19.8% y/y, as international arrivals grew to 2.39 million. As holiday & leisure & business & conferencing top the allure of the Kenyan market accounting for 44.2% & 26.9% of 2024's arrivals, respectively, the competitive landscape in the hospitality industry is navigating a shake up with top tier players introducing mid-market offerings to cater to the needs of squeezed wallets & demands for accommodative price points amidst growing supply.  A look at the state of the hospitality industry, the COVID19 hangover & emerging trends.   December 16, 2025
Capital Markets State of Play | Business Redefined Collective Investment Schemes now hold Kes 679.6 billion (US$5.25 billion) worth of assets under management. The latest data from the market regulator shows that  Fixed Income Funds & Special Funds are leading the growth charge at 29.48% (q/q) to Kes 136.76 billion & 21.53% (q/q) to Kes 137.81 billion, respectively, as at close of Q3 2025. We speak to ICEA LION Asset Management CEO, Einstein Kihanda, on the evolving landscape of Collective Investment Schemes in the country. December 9, 2025
Special Report - Loan Pricing Formula Overhaul | Business Redefined Starting Dec 1st, 2025, Kenya's banking sector ushers in a new regime of interest rate determination as the Risk Based Credit Pricing model is overhauled for all new variable loans. A Special Report on what is changing, how it's changing, why it's changing, what implications this has on the market & whether it really is a game change in monetary transmission. December 2, 2025
East Africa's Ride Hailing Landscape | Business Redefined Usage of app-based mobility services has gained traction in Kenya's urban centres. In the taxi industry, this has presented a notable reset as the market adjusts to platform based sourcing of services, an increase in the number operators coupled with an increase in zone coverage. We take a look at this sector covering:
  • The regulatory landscape
  • Pricing & commission
  • Product development & distribution
  • Client security
 November 26, 2025
Kenya's Digital Payments Ecosystem | Business Redefined A conversation with Network International regarding Kenya's & East Africa's Digital Payments Ecosystem. On the discussion:
  1. Solving for the micro, small & medium size businesses as far as payments go
  2. Interoperability across channels & the state of play on frictionless payments
  3. Three years after the launch of the National QR Code Standard, where are we on that front?
  4. Security & data protection
 November 25, 2025