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Kenya’s private sector experienced strong end to 2022, latest PMI data shows
Kenya’s private sector experienced a strong end to 2022, according to the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data.
The data showed that new business rose at the fastest rate since February, leading to increased output and employment in the country. The boost to growth was helped by a decrease in inflationary pressures, as firms saw costs increase to the smallest extent in a year.
The PMI, which measures business conditions, rose to 51.6 in December, up from 50.9 in November and above the 50.0 neutral mark for the fourth month in a row.
This indicated a modest improvement in operating conditions, with Kenyan businesses experiencing a further rise in activity at the end of the year, resulting in the first back-to-back expansions in 2022.
Mulalo Madula, Economist at Standard Bank, commented on the data, saying: “December PMI paints a positive picture for the Kenyan economy, in line with the series average. It comes as no surprise to see activity expand, perhaps due to favourable weather conditions and softer price pressures before a challenging 2023. But the expansion was not broad based, with agriculture, manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade in expansionary territory. In contrast, the construction and service sectors experienced a decrease in output.”
Despite the positive news, businesses remained subdued about the year ahead due to concerns about global economic conditions.
“Going forward, businesses report only modest positivity, with 89% of respondents anticipating no change in business activity over the next 12 months. As a result, inventory gains were moderate and concentrated in the agricultural sector, with declines recorded elsewhere. This outlook partly reflects the nature of the current global environment, in which a slowdown in exports is likely to slow business activity,” Madula added.
On the positive side, Madula noted that inflationary pressures appeared to be easing, with input costs and output prices rising at a slower pace.
“Moderate inflation is likely to be one of the few positive factors in the second half of 2023, with fewer supply chain disruptions, favourable weather conditions and lower energy prices. However, idiosyncratic factors, including taxes, are likely to dislocate inflation in the first half of the year,” he said.
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