Iran’s Guards seize wartime power, blunting Supreme Leader’s role
Two months into a war with the US and Israel, Iran no longer has a single, undisputed clerical arbiter at the pinnacle of power — an abrupt break with the past that may be hardening Tehran’s stance as it weighs renewed talks with Washington.
Since its creation in 1979, the Islamic Republic has revolved around a supreme leader with final authority on all key matters of state. But the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war, and the elevation of his wounded son, Mojtaba, have ushered in a different order dominated by commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and marked by the absence of a decisive, authoritative referee.
Mojtaba Khamenei remains at the apex of the system, but three people familiar with internal deliberations say his role is largely to legitimize decisions made by his generals rather than issue directives himself.
Wartime pressure has concentrated power into a narrower, harder-line inner circle rooted in the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), the Supreme Leader’s office and the IRGC, which now dominates both military strategy and key political decisions, Iranian officials and analysts say.
“The Iranians are painfully slow in their response,” said a senior Pakistani government official briefed on peace talks between Iran and the United States that Islamabad has been mediating. “There is apparently no one decision-making command structure. At times, it takes them 2 to 3 days to respond.”
Analysts said the obstacle to a deal is not internal infighting in Tehran, but the gap between what Washington is prepared to offer and what Iran’s hardline Guards were willing to accept.
The diplomatic face of Iran at the talks with the US has been Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, more recently joined by parliament speaker Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf — a former Guards commander, Tehran mayor and presidential candidate — who has emerged during the war as a key conduit between Iran’s political, security and clerical elites.
On the ground, however, the central interlocutor has been IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi, according to a Pakistani and two Iranian sources who identified him weeks ago as Iran’s pivotal figure, including on the night a ceasefire was announced.
Mojtaba, who was severely injured in the opening Israeli and US strike that killed his father and other relatives and left him disfigured with serious leg wounds, has not appeared publicly and communicates through IRGC aides or limited audio links because of security constraints, two people close to his inner circle said.
There was no immediate reply from the Iranian foreign ministry to a request for comment on the issues raised in this article. Iranian officials have previously denied any divisions over negotiations with the United States.
REAL POWER WIELDED BY WARTIME LEADERSHIP, INSIDERS SAY
Iran submitted a new proposal to Washington on Monday, which according to senior Iranian sources envisions staged talks, with the nuclear issue to be set aside at the start until the war ends and disputes over Gulf shipping are resolved. Washington insists the nuclear issue must be addressed from the outset.
“Neither side wants to negotiate,” said Alan Eyre, an Iran expert and former US diplomat, adding that both believed time would weaken the other — Iran through leverage over Hormuz and Washington through economic pressure and a blockade.
For now, neither side can afford to bend, Eyre said: Iran’s IRGC is wary of appearing weak to Washington, while President Donald Trump faces midterm election pressure and little room for flexibility without political cost.
“For either, flexibility would be seen as weakness,” Eyre said.
That caution reflects not just the pressures of the moment, but the way power is now exercised inside Iran.While Mojtaba is formally Iran’s ultimate authority, he is a figure of assent rather than command, insiders say, endorsing outcomes forged through institutional consensus, rather than imposing authority. Real power, they say, has moved to a unified wartime leadership centered on the SNSC.
“Important deals probably pass through him,” Iranian analyst Arash Azizi said, “but I can’t see him overruling the National Security Council. How could he go against those running the war effort?”
Hardline figures such as former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and a cluster of radical MPs have raised their profile using forceful rhetoric during the war, but they lack the institutional clout to derail decisions or shape outcomes.
Mojtaba owes his elevation to the Guards, who sidelined pragmatists and backed him as a reliable guardian of their hardline agenda. Already strengthened by war, the Guards’ growing dominance signals a more aggressive foreign policy and tighter domestic repression, sources familiar with the country’s inner policy-making circles told Reuters.
Driven by revolutionary Islamism and a security‑first worldview, the Guards see their mission as preserving the Islamic Republic at home while projecting deterrence abroad.
That outlook, often shared with hardliners across the judiciary and the clerical establishment, prioritises rigid centralised control and resistance to Western pressure, particularly on nuclear policy and Iran’s regional reach.
POWER SHIFTS FROM CLERICS TO SECURITY SECTOR, ANALYSTS SAY
In practice, the Guards’ ideology shapes strategy and decision‑making rests firmly in their hands. With the country at war and Ali Khamenei gone, no actor inside the system has the power or scope to resist them, even if they wished to, the people close to internal discussions said.
The choice facing Iran’s leadership is no longer between moderate and hardline policy, but between hardline and even harder line. A small faction may argue for pushing further still, two Iranian sources close to power circles said, but even that impulse has so far been kept in check by the Guards.
The shift marks a decisive reordering of power from clerical primacy to security dominance. “We’ve gone from divine power to hard power,” said Aaron David Miller, a former US negotiator. “From the influence of the clerics to the influence of the Revolutionary Guard Corps. This is how Iran is being governed.”
While differences of opinion exist, decision‑making has consolidated around security institutions, with Mojtaba acting as a central convening figure rather than a lone decider, added Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.
Despite sustained military and economic pressure from the United States and Israel, Iran has shown no signs of fracture or capitulation nearly nine weeks into the war.
Nor, as Miller noted, is there evidence of fundamental rifts within the system or meaningful opposition on the streets.
That cohesion suggests that command now sits with the Guards and security services, which appear to be driving the war rather than merely executing it. A strategic consensus has emerged — avoid a return to full‑scale war, preserve leverage, especially over the Strait of Hormuz, and emerge from the conflict politically, economically and militarily stronger, Miller said.
Shows
See AllAM Live
AM Live is NTV's morning current affairs show that sets the agenda for the day with insightful panels every weekday.
Business Redefined
Business Redefined is Kenya’s premier thought leadership platform for unpacking matters regarding economic and finance policy as well demystifying complex developments in the region’s capital markets.
Comedies
A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula
Creatives & Coins Podcast
A podcast that dives deep into the vibrant and rapidly evolving digital creative economy in Kenya. This show explores the lives, challenges, and triumphs of individuals who are successfully navigating the gig and creative economies. From digital artists and content creators to freelance writers and tech entrepreneurs, we spotlight the voices that are shaping the future of work in Kenya.
Documentaries
A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula
Entertainment
A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula
Fixing The Nation
Fixing the Nation is a bold and groundbreaking show that will take an unflinching look at challenges facing the Kenyan society and the solutions that can move us forward. It is anchored by respected journalists Eric Lattif, Janet Mbugua, and Mariam Bishar. Podcast created by: Nation FM
Fixing the Nation
Fixing the Nation is a bold and groundbreaking show that will take an unflinching look at challenges facing the Kenyan society and the solutions that can move us forward. It is anchored by respected journalists Eric Lattif, Janet Mbugua, and Mariam Bishar
Full Episodes
A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula
Gumzo La Sato
Gumzo La Sato is a live social issues show that aims to create awareness about issues affecting the larger society. The discussions range from Parenting, Marital bliss and struggles, Oppression, violence, and all matters of the Heart.
Health Diary
Health Diary is a weekly show that highlights different types of diseases/conditions and seeks ways to prevent, treat/manage them. The show debunks this through real life stories and also feature specialists in different fields, to offer medical advice on the same.
Letter To My Younger Self
Letter To My Younger Self is a podcast where guests get to write a letter to their younger self, from which Maxine formulates questions to ask them during the hour-long show.
Nation Reports
Nation Reports is a weekly podcast offers an opportunity for listeners to interact with various reporters and journey with them as they unravel the biggest most emotive stories.
One Health Lens Podcast
Discussing health matters and human stories from Kenya and across Africa. We talk big picture from people to policy, ecosystems, and everything in between. Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onehealthlens
Paradise Lost
Paradise Lost peeks through the story of Louis Otieno, the times, and everything in between.
Primetime
A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula
Speaking of GEN Z
Speaking of Gen Z brings you entertaining but meaningful conversations about a generation that is trying to navigate through adulthood. Join hosts Michelle, Jackie and Esther as they unravel all things Gen Z.
Sport On
Sport-On is a 30-minute sports magazine show on NTV and 3 hours on NATION FM. The show seeks to give the sports “fanatics” and “funatics” comprehensive and in-depth coverage of sports both locally and internationally.
Tech-over
The extent of technological growth is beyond mere acknowledgment; it has seamlessly integrated into our daily existence. A few years ago, the notion of paying electricity bills through mobile money or recharging with 'tokens' in Kenya seemed inconceivable. Online product sales were considered distant, and artificial intelligence is rapidly reshaping various facets of our lives. Amidst these technological leaps, those with a solid understanding of tech can navigate challenges, seize opportunities, and build a sustainable livelihood. Tech over Show aims to be the platform facilitating discussions among thought leaders, innovators, tech companies, and the government, addressing challenges and opportunities in Kenya's thriving tech industry.
Thamani
Thamani is a business show which is dedicated to emerging issues regarding micro, small and medium size businesses.
The Politalk podcast
This is The Politalk podcast. Here we look into the ins and outs of everything Kenyan politics. We pull no punches and have no reason to sugarcoat anything that matters to Kenyans.
The Trend
A two-hour-long live show that airs on Fridays. The show focuses on what is current in the entertainment industry, controversial and popular across all media platforms targeting those aged between 25 and 35 years.
The trend podcast
The trend podcast highlights and captures the best of banter from #TTTT segment that airs every Friday on NTV. It's the TTTT EXTRA
The Wicked Edition
The Wicked Edition with Dr. King’ori seeks to address serious issues through humour and relatable wit. It is a two-part half hour show filmed in front of a live audience
Trending
A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula
Twende
Twende is a travel show that highlights beautiful, unique, diverse locations, people, and cultures. The show offers fresh perspectives on familiar locations and memorable experiences in new ones.
Unscripted
This Saturday evening lifestyle show lets viewers share their stories and life experiences as openly & honestly for the purpose of shifting the culture of silence.
VIP Access
VIP ACCESS is Anyiko Owoko’s YouTube and podcast show on Music and Culture dedicated to promoting Africa’s most promising talent and creatives. This podcast grants you VIP access into timeless interviews while providing a platform for rising as well as established artists across the continent. Since launching in 2018, Anyiko has interviewed over 70 African music stars.
WADR
This weekly news show aims to have all sides of debate but not be constrained by it, listen to main voices in the contest but not allow them to hold the viewers hostage, entertain debate but allow push back with all due respect.
When death do us part
In this podcast, three widowers openly speak about the process of grief, how they found themselves exposed to the emotional turmoil of losing their wives, and how society still does not know how to deal with them.
Your World
Your World is a health, wellness and variety show. It provides a platform for audiences and experts to share their experiences on how to improve or manage health issues, across Kenya and the Africa region.