Big worry for Kenya as Al-Shabaab seek weapons deal with Houthi rebels
Regional authorities are concerned over U.S intelligence reports that Al Shabaab fighters have forged an alliance with Yemeni Houthis to provide weapons to the Al Qaeda-linked outfit.
Kenyan ally in the fight against Al Shabaab, Jubaland President Ahmed Mohamed “Madobe,” has told the Sunday Nation that there should be concerted efforts to stop such exchange of weapons because it would spell doom for regional security. The prospect of Houthi fighters handing sophisticated weapons to Al Shabaab five months to the final phase draw down of African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) troops from Somalia is worrying not only to Kenya but other regional governments. Procurement of these sophisticated weapons by Al Shabaab from the Houthis, which some intelligence sources have this week said was a possibility, will embolden the Somalia-based rebels and might enable them to erase all the stabilisation gains made by ATMIS and the local security agencies therein.
The weapons exchange between the Houthis and Al Shabaab fighters has the potential of destabilising a region already on tenterhooks.
If actualized, the Houthis will supply sophisticated deadly ballistic missiles and drones including underwater drones to Al Shabaab who have been using Improvised Explosive Devices, mortars, ammunition and AK47 rifles. “This is certainly unsettling for the region, moreso Jubaland. Most of the gains made in the last 13 years will be reversed,” Mr Madobe told the Sunday Nation. The Jubaland President who has battled Al Shabaab for decades further added: “There is need to pull together, as a region supported by our international partners, to ensure this union of convenience does not bear children.” By December 2024, all security responsibilities will be handed over to the Somalia security agencies as the ATMIS troops are expected to have withdrawn from the war torn country. Al Shabaab is likely to upscale attacks and its operations within Somalia to take over control of territories handed over by African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to the country’s security agents.
Since Kenyan troops entered Somalia in October 2011, piracy on the East African coast was eliminated and there has been a notable reduction of insecurity in Somalia.
That the two groups with absolutely different political and religious ideology are already exchanging weapons and technology is very worrying because the Houthis have in recent days attacked US and Israeli vessels sailing through the Red Sea. Although they have stark sectarian differences, the two groups have shared connections through the Axis of Resistance and Al Qaeda networks that could encourage opportunistic cooperation and common anti US sentiments. Such weapons transfer would provide much needed revenue for the Houthis and a very advanced weapons system including Iranian made surface-to-air missiles and attack drones for the Al Shabaab. Between October 2023 and March 2024, the Houthi rebels launched more than 60 attacks on commercial ships in the Gulf of Aden in the Red Sea.
That Kenya accepted to try Houthi rebels arrested by US military in the country spells doom because the cooperation between the two ideologically different rebel groups is disastrous.
The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime’s (GITOC) 2020 report reveals that some weapons in Al Shabaab’s possession come from the Yemeni/Somalia arms smuggling network. The recent historic visit to the US by Kenyan President William Ruto ensured the expansion of Manda Bay military base which is used by American soldiers operating in the region. The construction for a Wajir airbase to accommodate US troops could attract attacks from the two now cooperating rebel groups that regard America as the common enemy. These two bases will likely be targets of the Al Shabaab/ Houthi alliance because the latter would provide low-end Qasef drones with a 200 kilometre range and are cheap, easy to manufacture, can easily be transported, require little logistical support and would be very ideal for Al Shabaab.
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