ExxonMobil dismissed own global warming forecast: study

ExxonMobil publicly downplayed climate change even though scientists for the oil giant had accurately predicted global warming from fossil fuels as far back as the late 1970s, according to a study published on Thursday.

“They modelled and predicted global warming with shocking accuracy and skill, only for the company to spend the next couple of decades denying that very climate science,” said Geoffrey Supran, a coauthor of the study in the journal Science.

ExxonMobil, formed in a 1999 merger between Exxon and Mobil Oil, has faced accusations for years that it knew about the threat of global warming decades ago.

Inside Climate News and the Los Angeles Times first revealed in 2015 that ExxonMobil was aware for a long time that climate change was real and was the result of human activity.

The company is the target of a number of lawsuits in the United States, several of which are ongoing, an activist campaign tagged “Exxon Knew,” and the European Parliament and US Congress have held hearings into the oil behemoth.

“I see this as “Exxon Knew 2.0,” Supran said of his research, performed while he was at Harvard University.

He told AFP the study, for the first time, compared the findings of ExxonMobil’s own scientists to what other climate researchers knew at the time and to what has subsequently occurred.

“They didn’t just vaguely know something about global warming decades ago,” said Supran.

“They knew as much as independent, academic and government scientists did, and arguably, they knew what they needed to know to begin to take action and warn the public.”

Supran, who now teaches at the University of Miami, said he and his coauthors from Harvard and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research had analysed private ExxonMobil graphs and tables that had never been scrutinised before.

“We’ve gone from a qualitative understanding of what they knew to a quantitative statistically precise one,” he said. “Our analysis truly seals the deal on what Exxon knew and literally puts a number on it.”

The researchers analysed 32 internal documents produced by ExxonMobil scientists between 1977 and 2002 and 72 peer-reviewed scientific publications that they authored or coauthored.

The documents contained 16 global mean temperature projections linked to a rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

“Overall, ExxonMobil’s global warming projections closely track subsequent observed temperature increases,” the study said.

Ten of the 16 projections are “consistent with historical observations,” two forecast more warming than observed and four forecast less.

On average, the ExxonMobil scientists predicted average warming of 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade, equivalent to the current rate.

– ‘Excellent scientists’ –

Senior ExxonMobil executives meanwhile were dismissing climate warnings.

“Projections are based on completely unproven climate models, or, more often, sheer speculation,” ExxonMobil CEO Lee Raymond said in 1999.

Climate models are “not competent,” said his successor, Rex Tillerson.

Several of the ExxonMobil scientists involved with coming up with the projections testified before Congress in 2019.

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez asked one of them, Martin Hoffert, about the uncanny accuracy of his 1982 climate projections.

“We were excellent scientists,” Hoffert replied.

The World Meteorological Organization said Thursday that the past eight years were the hottest since records began and the US space agency NASA released similar global temperature findings.

Gavin Schmidt, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said tackling climate change would involve much more than just “naming and shaming” the oil companies.

“It isn’t as if we could just turn around and say, ‘ExxonMobil stop producing fossil fuels,’ and then we’d solve the problem,” Schmidt said. “All those products are being used by people and by industries and by cities and other infrastructure.”

Asked about the Science report, Todd Spitler, an ExxonMobil spokesman, said “this issue has come up several times in recent years.

“And, in each case, our answer is the same: those who talk about how ‘Exxon Knew’ are wrong in their conclusions,” he said.

AM Live

AM Live is NTV's morning current affairs show that sets the agenda for the day with insightful panels every weekday.

BNX

Business Redefined

Business Redefined is Kenya’s premier thought leadership platform for unpacking matters regarding economic and finance policy as well demystifying complex developments in the region’s capital markets.

Comedies

A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula

Documentaries

A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula

Entertainment

A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula

Full Episodes

A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula

Gumzo La Sato

Gumzo La Sato is a live social issues show that aims to create awareness about issues affecting the larger society. The discussions range from Parenting, Marital bliss and struggles, Oppression, violence, and all matters of the Heart.

Health Diary

Health Diary is a weekly show that highlights different types of diseases/conditions and seeks ways to prevent, treat/manage them. The show debunks this through real life stories and also feature specialists in different fields, to offer medical advice on the same.

Letter To My Younger Self

Letter To My Younger Self is a podcast where guests get to write a letter to their younger self, from which Maxine formulates questions to ask them during the hour-long show.

Mazao Talks

Mazao looks at agriculture and agribusiness

Nation Reports

Nation Reports is a weekly podcast offers an opportunity for listeners to interact with various reporters and journey with them as they unravel the biggest most emotive stories.

One Health Lens Podcast

Discussing health matters and human stories from Kenya and across Africa. We talk big picture from people to policy, ecosystems, and everything in between. Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onehealthlens

Paradise Lost

Paradise Lost peeks through the story of Louis Otieno, the times, and everything in between.

Podcasts

Podcasts

Primetime

A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula

Speaking of GEN Z

Speaking of Gen Z brings you entertaining but meaningful conversations about a generation that is trying to navigate through adulthood. Join hosts Michelle, Jackie and Esther as they unravel all things Gen Z.

Sport On

Sport-On is a 30-minute sports magazine show on NTV and 3 hours on NATION FM. The show seeks to give the sports “fanatics” and “funatics” comprehensive and in-depth coverage of sports both locally and internationally.

Tech-over

The extent of technological growth is beyond mere acknowledgment; it has seamlessly integrated into our daily existence. A few years ago, the notion of paying electricity bills through mobile money or recharging with 'tokens' in Kenya seemed inconceivable. Online product sales were considered distant, and artificial intelligence is rapidly reshaping various facets of our lives. Amidst these technological leaps, those with a solid understanding of tech can navigate challenges, seize opportunities, and build a sustainable livelihood. Tech over Show aims to be the platform facilitating discussions among thought leaders, innovators, tech companies, and the government, addressing challenges and opportunities in Kenya's thriving tech industry.

Thamani

Thamani is a business show which is dedicated to emerging issues regarding micro, small and medium size businesses.

The Politalk podcast

This is The Politalk podcast. Here we look into the ins and outs of everything Kenyan politics. We pull no punches and have no reason to sugarcoat anything that matters to Kenyans.

The Trend

A two-hour-long live show that airs on Fridays. The show focuses on what is current in the entertainment industry, controversial and popular across all media platforms targeting those aged between 25 and 35 years.

The trend podcast

The trend podcast highlights and captures the best of banter from #TTTT segment that airs every Friday on NTV. It's the TTTT EXTRA

The Wicked Edition

The Wicked Edition with Dr. King’ori seeks to address serious issues through humour and relatable wit. It is a two-part half hour show filmed in front of a live audience

Trending

A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula A collection of our premium content. Diam curabitur vehicula

Twende

Twende is a travel show that highlights beautiful, unique, diverse locations, people, and cultures. The show offers fresh perspectives on familiar locations and memorable experiences in new ones.

Unscripted

This Saturday evening lifestyle show lets viewers share their stories and life experiences as openly & honestly for the purpose of shifting the culture of silence.

VIP Access

VIP ACCESS is Anyiko Owoko’s YouTube and podcast show on Music and Culture dedicated to promoting Africa’s most promising talent and creatives. This podcast grants you VIP access into timeless interviews while providing a platform for rising as well as established artists across the continent. Since launching in 2018, Anyiko has interviewed over 70 African music stars.

WADR

This weekly news show aims to have all sides of debate but not be constrained by it, listen to main voices in the contest but not allow them to hold the viewers hostage, entertain debate but allow push back with all due respect.

When death do us part

In this podcast, three widowers openly speak about the process of grief, how they found themselves exposed to the emotional turmoil of losing their wives, and how society still does not know how to deal with them.

Your World

Your World is a health, wellness and variety show. It provides a platform for audiences and experts to share their experiences on how to improve or manage health issues, across Kenya and the Africa region.